Michael Steele is, if nothing else, the smartest man in the GOP.

Steele’s getting heat from progressives such as Andrew Sullivan and the operators of the popular pro-Democrat blog Think Progress for remarks he made during his February 23 appearance on Mike Gallagher’s program. The Salem Radio Network star asked Steele if the time had come for Republicans to “…consider some sort of alternative to redefining marriage and maybe in the road, down the road to civil unions. Do you favor civil unions?”

In a shrewd response, Steele said: “No, no no. What would we do that for? What are you, crazy? No. Why would we backslide on a core, founding value of this country? I mean this isn’t something that you just kind of like, ‘Oh well, today I feel, you know, loosey-goosey on marriage.’”

Think Progress accused Steele of hypocrisy, noting that in recent weeks he has suggested the party needs to be open to those who might have differing views on issues such as same-sex marriage and civil unions. What Think Progress doesn’t realize is that Steele is not actually contradicting himself.

Last week, Steele announced plans to rebrand the GOP in order to attract younger voters. Surely, Steele knows that many young voters either support same-sex marriage/civil unions or could not care less about the issue of legal recognition for gay couples. Voters under the age of 35 have grown up in an era marked by the open integration of gays and lesbians into the American mainstream.

Steele also knows that, if he openly came out in favor of civil unions, the GOP’s socially conservative base would crucify him—and not figuratively, either. Even though he’s the head of the RNC, social conservatives still hold Steele in suspicion because he’s from Maryland and because he used to pal around with Christie Todd Whitman. If an alleged RINO officially endorsed civil unions, his tenure as RNC chairman would effectively end.

So what did Steele do? He expressed opposition to civil unions, knowing that America’s left-libertarian culture will soon render the issue moot.

Same-sex marriage is on its way to becoming the law of the land, despite what happened in California last November; the progressive judges President Obama plans to appoint to the federal bench will not hesitate to make rulings that will effectively nullify state laws against same-sex marriage, just as the Supreme Court once nullified state laws banning marriages between participants of different races. Progressives understand that the path to “equal marriage” lies in the federal courts—and Obama will clear that path through his appointments.

Once same-sex marriage becomes the law in all fifty states, the Republican Party will either attempt to nullify the ruling via a constitutional amendment, or go with the flow and embrace the ruling as a sign of social progress. If the party determines that there is a greater political benefit in accepting the ruling (because of shifting cultural tides and growing social libertarianism in the body politic), the party will undoubtedly choose the latter approach.

Steele knows this. So why would he want to rock the boat?

Same-sex marriage will be nationalized in the very near future, because progressives, as the late Paul Weyrich noted ten years ago, won the cultural war. Because they emerged victorious (after scoring crucial victories on the battlefields of law, politics, entertainment, journalism and education), they will enjoy the benefits of victory---and the establishment of same-sex marriage via the federal courts will be one of those benefits.

Steele is a businessman. He knows that at some point, the GOP will have to confront the issue of same-sex marriage/civil unions, and will likely choose the path of least political resistance. He also knows that time has not arrived. Until it does, he’s going to keep calm.

This is not to say that Steele actually supports same-sex marriage or civil unions. He is solidly conservative when it comes to social issues—not solid enough for those who demand he meet an impossible standard of purity, but solid enough for common-sense conservatives. Steele is a traditionalist, and thus views marriage as an institution that should be explicitly, and exclusively, heterosexual.

Yet Steele can read the tea leaves. He knows that, for a growing number of Americans, same-sex marriage isn’t even an issue. He knows it won’t be long before the GOP and the Democrats are virtually indistinguishable on this issue. So he’ll say one thing, knowing in a few years, his party will do something else.