If Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele is serious about restoring the GOP’s power in the Northeast, he should keep his eye on developments in Massachusetts, where beleaguered Governor—and Barack’s best buddy—Deval Patrick could face a strong Republican challenger next year.

Bay State Republicans—short on numbers, long on hope—felt their spirits rise this week after Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charles Baker announced that he was considering a gubernatorial run. Baker, who served admirably in the administrations of former Republican Governors William Weld and Paul Cellucci, told the Boston Herald that a run would be an “uphill climb”; however, considering Patrick’s weaknesses, such an effort might not be as hard as it would appear.

In a recent interview with Boston political reporter Jon Keller, Baker stated that Patrick deserved an “incomplete” grade for his handling of state government, a rather charitable assessment. “I think you’d have to give it an incomplete, because when Gov. Patrick ran and was elected, we were in one environment, economically and sort of politically, and now we’re in a completely different one,” stated Baker, leaving unstated the fact that the “different” environment Massachusetts is in now is far, far worse than it was when Patrick became Governor.

Patrick promoted himself as a man who would change the way things worked in Massachusetts. Things have certainly changed in the state: taxes are escalating, jobs are disappearing, and corruption is growing. Morale is low in Massachusetts: those who voted for Patrick because he promised hope are now feeling betrayed, abandoned, played for dopes.

If Baker gets in the game, Patrick will be in for a bruising—losing?—contest. Sure, the incumbent (assuming he survives a likely primary challenge from state Treasurer Tim Cahill) will have some advantages: big-money Democrat donors, the support of the President and members of the state’s all-Democrat Congressional delegation, the hardcore loyalty of certain Democrat constituency groups. However, Patrick won’t have much of a record to run on: his greatest accomplishment as governor was the termination of efforts to democratically nullify the Massachusetts Supreme Court’s 2003 ruling authorizing same-sex marriage.

Baker, on the other hand, is well-respected for his work during the Weld-Cellucci years. As a 1998 Boston Globe Magazine profile noted, “[Baker] is a conservative who has won over many liberals; he is the brains behind welfare and Medicaid reforms that have set standards for other reforms across the country. Baker helped raise Massachusetts's fiscal ranking from 50th—a shame shared with Louisiana—to 11th. Brash and blunt, straight-shooting and wise-cracking, he has come to command the respect of Beacon Hill and the begrudging affection of the press.”

Prior to joining the Weld administration, Baker earned the respect of those opposed to the Bay State’s dominant political vision with his work on behalf of the Pioneer Institute, a think tank that fought for free-market solutions to the state's problems. His commitment to reform defined his tenure at Harvard Pilgrim, which under his watch has gained recognition as one of the nation’s most well-run health plan organizations.

Baker would make an outstanding governor, and would also return some semblance of political balance to a state that has more Democrats than the Obama administration has tax scofflaws. However, Baker can’t do it alone. If he obtains the Republican nomination next year, Steele’s assistance will come in handy.

If Baker defeats Patrick, it will be a tremendous psychological blow for the Democrats—and especially for the President himself. How humiliating will it be for Obama if his close friend is conquered on the same night that Republicans make significant gains in the House and Senate? A Baker win, along with a dominant GOP performance in the midterms, would knock the Obama administration off its axis with only two years to go before the President’s own reelection campaign.

Steele shouldn’t listen to anyone who tells him to write off Massachusetts. The Bay State had solid Republican governors for sixteen years prior to Patrick’s victory. It can have another one after November 2010. Steele vowed that he would once again make the GOP competitive in the Northeast. If Baker challenges Patrick in 2010, Steele will have a perfect opportunity to fulfill that vow.

Massachusetts residents are being pounded by Gov. Patrick’s rough fists. Baker has the skills necessary to hit Patrick with a knockout blow that will send him into retirement. If he gets in the ring, Steele should be in his corner.