Can David Frum forge a new majority?

The veteran conservative pundit and former Bush speechwriter has launched NewMajority.com, a group blog intended to heal the wounds afflicting the ailing Republican Party and conservative movement. Just as I wish President Obama the best of luck in leading this country, I wish Frum the best of luck in leading the American right out of the wilderness.

Frum’s “Diary” blog at National Review Online has been a must-read for the past few years and, unfortunately, a target of much unfair criticism. Frum has been smeared by the talk-radio world for allegedly being a RINO or a faux-conservative, largely because he a) didn’t buy the right’s effort to position Sarah Palin as the new Queen of Conservatism and b) believed that merely recycling old lines from the Reagan ‘80s would not lead to a new era of Republican dominance.

Of course, Frum was right on both counts. If Palin was in fact the new conservative superstar she was made out to be, she would have turned out enough votes to carry John McCain to victory. Palin ultimately turned out to be the Newt Gingrich of the 2000s, a figure loved by the base and loathed by virtually everyone else.

Frum also realizes something that too many conservatives seem to ignore or downplay: the reality that it is not 1980 anymore, demographically, politically or culturally. Like Richard Nixon in 1972, Reagan scored big-time victories by attracting a large percentage of the white middle-class vote. Today, attracting the white middle-class vote is not enough to secure victory; one must appeal to an increasingly diverse America in order to go over.

Frum charted a course to victory in a recent Newsweek article, noting that the GOP must acknowledge the silent problem of middle-class wage stagnation, address social-conservative issues in ways that don’t come across as ridiculous or excessively hostile, refocus on environmental issues and reaffirm the party’s commitment to public-sector competence.

“So long as we think Barack Obama won because of a fluke—because he waltzed into an economic crisis, or because his supporters somehow mastered better election technology, or because he somehow bamboozled the American public with vague, endearing promises of change—so long as we think those things, so long will our troubles continue,” Frum correctly notes. “Barack Obama won because a majority of Americans believed he was an intelligent, levelheaded and responsible person who could solve problems they cared about. If we're to beat him—or succeed him—we're going to have to convince them that we can do the same or better.”

Will conservatives heed Frum’s message? They ought to. The online right has yet to truly grasp the magnitude of Obama’s victory; too many conservative bloggers seem to believe that Obama’s win was some sort of accident, and not the natural culmination of a decade-long shift to the center-left on the part of the American electorate. Political and cultural liberalism has gained power since the mid- to late-1990s: how else does one explain the public’s objection to President Clinton’s impeachment in 1998, the closeness of the 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections and the anti-GOP tide of the 2006 midterm elections?

I’ve never understood the logic of the anti-Frum vehemence in some sectors of the right. I still remember being galvanized by Frum’s book Dead Right; the book deserved a place alongside Dinesh D’Souza’s Illiberal Education and Stephan and Abigail Thernstrom’s America in Black and White as one of the best political/cultural books of the 1990s. I’ve admired Frum’s writing ever since; quite frankly, I wish he was as prominent a media presence as some of his loudest critics.

It’s dispiriting to be a conservative these days. The Democrats seemingly control everything—Washington, the mainstream press, the colleges and universities, the entertainment world. Thoughtful Republicans seem few and far between; even the Republicans I respect the most seem compelled to downplay former President Bush’s flaws while overemphasizing his achievements. I remember the energy and vigor of fifteen years ago, when Republicans drafted a Contract with America and the country agreed to sign it. I remember wanting to be Newt Gingrich. I remember the feeling that it was truly morning in America again.

Can that feeling ever be recaptured? Or is it a permanent part of the past?

David Frum believes that conservatism can come back. His new project certainly reflects his optimism. Reading NewMajority.com, I can’t help feeling a sense of hope—a sense that things will change.