A John McCain Presidential victory in November will be an event twenty-eight years in the making.

While McCain is preferable to Barack Obama as President Bush’s successor, one cannot deny that his election will represent the success of the “centrist counterrevolution” in the Republican Party. The centrist-moderate wing of the GOP was left for dead in 1980, when its icon—George H. W. Bush—lost to Ronald Reagan in the Republican primary. Republicans who were not comfortable with Reagan-style social conservatism quietly grumbled as Reagan moved the party, and the country, to the right in the 1980s. For years, they’ve tried to figure out a way to once again control the GOP nominating process. McCain’s nomination is their triumph.

If McCain wins, the centrist counterrevolutionaries will be every bit as happy as conservatives were nearly three decades ago. In their minds, McCain represents the real Republican Party: a party that seeks compromise instead of conservatism, a party that believes in a “Big Tent” as opposed to fidelity to the principles of the right. One can call them RINOs, quasi-conservatives, even militant moderates. If McCain wins, however, one will have to call them dominant.

The centrist counterrevolutionaries consider Bush the Elder a hero. His 1988 win was regarded as eight years overdue: his call for a “kinder, gentler nation” was embraced as a necessary corrective to the alleged ultraconservative hyper-partisanship of the Reagan era. These Republicans view Bush the Elder’s tenure as a model of how a Republican President should behave.

Bush the Elder was right, but not “too” right. He split the Supreme Court difference by placing one conservative and one non-conservative on the bench. He acted appropriately by removing Manuel Noriega from power and forcing Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, but he did not act “recklessly” by ousting the Butcher of Baghdad in supposed violation of international law. He demonstrated his own form of “compassionate conservatism” by signing the Americans with Disabilities Act and renewing the Clean Air Act. Bush implemented his domestic and foreign-policy vision with a soft touch, not the purportedly rough fist of his predecessor.

The centrist counterrevolutionaries loved Bush, and were quite disappointed when he fell to Clinton in 1992. Four years later, these Republicans were the only ones passionately behind Bob Dole, another non-partisan who craved compromise. (Prior to Dole, many of these centrist counterrevolutionaries supported Colin Powell just as strongly as the far-left supports Barack Obama today, but Powell broke their hearts by opting not to run.) They considered Dole a perfect candidate, someone who wasn’t “right-wing” but who was also not a fan of the extreme left. Of course, Dole was steamrolled by the Clinton Machine, much to the chagrin of the centrists.

These Republicans actually view the current President Bush as a right-wing ideologue. They will never forgive him for endorsing the Federal Marriage Amendment and fighting to protect Terri Schiavo’s life. They would have preferred Sandra Day O’Connor clones to either John Roberts or Samuel Alito. They think Dubya‘s current political woes are directly tied to his relationship with the “far religious right.”

The centrist counterrevolutionaries adore McCain. They cheered when he called Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson “agents of intolerance.” They admire McCain’s silent libertarianism on gay rights and his embrace of global-warming doctrine. They like the fact that he has antagonized conservative pundits and talk-radio hosts. They think it’s courageous that he’s willing to deviate from the Republican party line.

Conservatives don’t really dislike McCain as an individual; they dislike the fact that he is loved by those who despise the American right. McCain’s support comes from those who thought Reagan and Gingrich were too radical, those who thought Goldwater was a wacky warmonger, those who thought William F. Buckley was just a bit out there. McCain is the Prime Minister of Moderate Republicanism, the George H. W. Bush of the 2000s, the holy figure of political centrism. His nomination is the fruit of years of efforts by non-conservative Republicans to move the party away from all that right-wing Reagan stuff. If he becomes President, the centrist counterrevolution will proclaim, “Mission Accomplished.”

Conservatives might not want to hear this, but the leaders of the centrist counterrevolution will maintain power in the GOP for years to come. They lost power once, and they will fight like rabid canines not to lose it again. They will use their influence to force future conservative Presidential contenders to reinvent themselves as moderates in order to receive the GOP nomination. McCain’s victory will be a template for future GOP wins. Those hoping for the likes of Bobby Jindal to restart the Reagan era are in for a rude, harsh, brutal awakening. The centrist counterrevolution will force Jindal and other conservative-minded contenders to bend to their will—and if they don’t, they’ll be broken apart politically.

The centrist counterrevolution has essentially vanquished the American conservative movement. From now on, American voters will only have a choice between the moderation of the Republicans or the Marxism of the Democrats. For conservatives, this will be a nightmare. For the centrist counterrevolutionaries, this will be a dream come true.