With a week to go before Americans vote in all 435 congressional districts, Republicans look poised to expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, based largely on favorable redistricting since the 2000 census. In the swing states of Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Republicans managed to dominate the redistricting process after the census, raising the number of safe Republican seats there. In Texas, a masterful (if controversial and belated) redistricting is now almost certain to yield the bulk of national Republican gains in this election cycle. In California, New Jersey, and Virginia, Democratic and Republican state legislators joined together to craft “incumbent protection plans” that made current House members of both parties invulnerable. Because of this post-2000 redistricting process, the 2004 election cycle is likely to see fewer competitive House races than any in recent memory. Currently in the House, there are 227 Republicans, 205 Democrats, and 1 Independent (Bernie Sanders of Vermont) who votes with Democrats. There are also two vacant GOP seats that were created when Republican Rep. Porter Goss of Florida resigned to become CIA director and Doug Bereuter (Neb.) resigned to take a private sector job. In Texas, Republicans are likely to pick up six Democratic seats and hold two others in incumbent vs. incumbent races. In other states, three districts currently held by Democrats are now leaning toward the GOP candidate. On the other side of the ledger, two districts now held by Republican are likely to fall to the Democrats, while two other Republican-controlled districts are leaning Democratic. Overall, I predict a net gain of five seats for the Republicans. Furthermore, Republican Connie Mack IV will hold onto Goss’s vacant seat for the GOP. That means the next House of Representatives will have 234 Republicans, 197 Democrats, and 1 Independent. In the chart below, incumbents are in bold type.

DISTRICT	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Texas-1	Louis Gohmert	Max Sandlin	Former State District Judge Gohmert got big edge over Sandlin in redistricting process.
Texas-2	Ted Poe	Nick Lampson	Tough-talking former State District Judge Poe took perhaps biggest advantage from redistricting in any competitive Texas district.
Texas-10	Mike McCaul	Lorenzo Sadun	Ex-Asst. U.S. Atty. McCaul is running in perhaps the safest new GOP district in the state.
Texas-11	Mike Conaway	Wayne Raasch	CPA Conaway is a sure thing in this Midland-based district.
Texas-17	Arlene Wohlgemuth	Chet Edwards	Although Edwards has survived relocating to run on new turf before, this district is home to the Bush ranch and State Rep. Wohlgemuth will be strong.
Texas-19	Randy Neugebauer	Charlie Stenholm	One-termer Neugebauer has strong lead in most polls over 26-year Rep. Stenholm.
Texas-24	Kenny Marchant	Gary Page	18-year State Rep. Kenny Marchant's nomination in the primary was tantamount to election
Texas-32	Pete Sessions	Martin Frost	Sessions is believed to leading former DCCC head Frost in what is likely to become most expensive House race in history.

DISTRICT	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
Kansas-3	Kris Kobach	Dennis Moore	A united GOP and enthusiastic organization should put law Prof. Kobach, a former aide to John Ashcroft, over three-termer Moore, who has barely won his last two races.
Kentucky-4	Geoff Davis	Nick Clooney	Former American Movie Channel host Clooney probably has 100% name ID., GOP history favors 2002 near-winner Davis.
Pennsylvania-13	Dr. Melissa Brown	State Sen. Allyson Schwartz	With Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel running for the Senate, the 2002 GOP nominee, moderate Brown should edge out far-left Demo Schwartz.

DISTRICT	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
New York-27	Erie County Comptroller Nancy Naples	State Assemblyman Dennis Higgins	Although 12-year Rep. Jack Quinn was able to keep Buffalo-area district in GOP hands, his retirement is likely to restore its former tendencies with organization Democrat Higgins.
Georgia-12	Max Burns	Athens-Clarke County Commissioner John Barrow	Burns won upset in district that is 40% black when Democrats put up tainted opponent in 2002. Barrow is scandal-free and thus, the front-runner.

DISTRICT	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
New Mexico-1	Heather Wilson	State Senate President Richard Romero	Wilson won her biggest-ever (55%) margin over Romero in 2002, but now he's back with better campaign and more money.
Washington State-8	King County Sheriff Dave Reichert	Dave Ross	With Republican Rep. Jennifer Dunn retiring, conservatives are still suspicious of primary winner Reichert. Popular radio commentator Ross has widespread following.