SharePrintForward

John Gizzi
Page 3 -- Republicans Likely to Pick Up Senate Seats


With two weeks to go before voters go to the polls in 34 states to choose U.S. senators, prospects are good the Republicans will make a net gain of 3 seats. Such a gain would increase their Senate majority from the current 51 to 49 (when Independent Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont is counted with the Democrats) to 54 to 46. The Republicans appear poised to pick up seats in five states where Democratic incumbents are retiring--Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina But they appear likely to lose only two seats held by GOP retirees--Illinois and Colorado. In addition, the GOP should retain hotly contested seats in Oklahoma and Alaska (where appointed Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski will win a term of her own). Here is my state-by-state analysis (incumbents' names are in bold face).
----------
Likely Republican Pick-Ups
STATEREPUBLICANDEMOCRATANALYSIS
FloridaMel MartinezBetty CastorFormer HUD Secretary leads in recent polls for seat of retiring Democrat Bob Graham
GeorgiaRep. Johnny IsaksonRep. Denise MajetteIsakson is slam-dunk over Majette to succeed retiring Sen. Zell Miller (D).
Louisiana*Rep. David VitterChris John, John Kennedy, others*Vitter could win 50% and avoid run-off to replace retiring Sen. John Breaux (D).
North CarolinaRep. Richard BurrErskine BowlesBurr has momentum over former Clinton chief of staff to replace John Edwards.
South CarolinaRep. Jim DeMintInez TannenbaumDeMint holds constant lead to succeed retiring Sen. Ernest Hollings (D).
Leaning Republican Holds
STATEREPUBLICANDEMOCRATANALYSIS
AlaskaSen. Lisa MurkowskiTony KnowlesMurkowski is over bad press for being appointed by her father, the governor.
OklahomaTom CoburnRep. Brad CarsonBig Bush margin in Oklahoma should help Coburn edge Carson.
Certain Republican Holds
STATEREPUBLICANDEMOCRATANALYSIS
AlabamaRichard ShelbyWayne SowellShelby has $11 million in campaign kitty and is the most popular politician in Alabama
ArizonaJohn McCainStu StarkyMcCain is an institution in Arizona after 22 years in Congress.
IdahoMike CrapoScott McClureFormer Republican McClure is write-in candidate.
IowaCharles GrassleyArt SmallSince he entered state legislature in 1958, Grassley has never lost an election.
KansasSam BrownbackLee JonesAfter two tough campaigns, Brownback will slam-dunk unknown Jones.
KentuckyJim BunningState Sen. Daniel MongiardoBunning should roll to landslide over physician Mongiardo
MissouriKit BondState Treasurer Nancy FarmerBond coasting to third Senate term from Show-Me state.
New HampshireJudd GreggDoris "Granny D" HaddockGregg has no trouble in third-term bid against 90-something "Granny D".
OhioGeorge VoinovichState Sen. Eric FingerhutVoinovich leads 58% to 32% in Cleveland Plain Dealer poll.
PennsylvaniaArlen SpecterRep. Joseph HoeffelAfter near-defeat in primary, Specter now strong favorite for fifth term.
UtahRobert BennettPaul Van DamBennett will win third term in seat his father held for four terms.
Likely Democratic Pick-Ups
STATEREPUBLICANDEMOCRATANALYSIS
ColoradoPete CoorsState Atty. Gen. Kenneth SalazarCoors has been hurt by contrast between his conservative values and corporate practices.
IllinoisAlan KeyesState Sen. Barack ObamaConvention keynoter Obama is already campaigning for candidates in other states
Leaning Democratic Holds
STATEREPUBLICANDEMOCRATANALYSIS
South DakotaJohn ThuneTom DaschleFormer Rep. Thune has given Daschle horserace, but lacks Daschle's endgame resources.
WashingtonRep. George NethercuttPatty MurrayMurray favored despite of hard-hitting ads featuring her praising Osama Bin Laden.
Certain Democratic Holds
STATEREPUBLICANDEMOCRATANALYSIS
ArkansasState Sen. Jim HoltBlanche LincolnLincoln holds massive lead in most polls over one-term State Sen. Holt.
CaliforniaBill JonesBarbara BoxerEx-Secretary of State Jones could not raise money against two-termer Boxer.
ConnecticutJack OrchulliChristopher DoddDodd is shoo-in over clothier Orchullli.
HawaiiKam CavassoDaniel Inouye42-year incumbent Inouye has no trouble with GOP newcomer Cavasso.
IndianaMarvin ScottEvan BayhBayh waltzing to second term over educator Scott.
MarylandState Sen. E.J. PipkinBarbara MikulskiMikulski has 2-to-1 lead in most polls.
NevadaRichard ZiserHarry ReidReid so secure he has gotten Republicans to donate to him over businessman Ziser.
New YorkHoward MillsCharles SchumerSchumer will beat Mills and Conservative nominee Marilyn O'Grady.
North DakotaMike LiffrigByron DorganDorgan looks like landslide winner against newcomer Liffrig.
OregonAl KingRon WydenWyden running far ahead of underfinanced ex-State GOP Vice Chairman King.
VermontJack McMullenPatrick LeahyLeahy holds big lead for fifth term over businessman McMullen.
WisconsinTim MichelsRussell FeingoldFormer U.S. Army Ranger Michels waging a spirited race but Feingold will survive.
*Under Louisiana law, candidates, regardless of party, compete on the same ballot and, if no one has a majority on November 2nd, the top two vote-getters meet in a December run-off.


John Gizzi is Political Editor of HUMAN EVENTS.

 
 
Reader Comments: (
)

There are no comments posted yet.
Please remember the opinions expressed by our readers are in no way those of Human Events, nor are they condoned by us, and we reserve the right to remove abusive posts.
Share Your Comment