Job creation, taxes, and a dose of the social issues will be the ingredients Republicans will use to win the governorship of Virginia -- a source of national attention this fall, as it is one of two races for governor anywhere in the nation.
And for those who felt that the nomination of “centrist Democrat” Creigh Deeds over the apparently-more-liberal Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran spelled doom for Republican nominee Bob McDonnell, the top McDonnell strategist says “guess again.”
“Creigh Deeds is no Mark Warner,” Ed Gillespie, general chairman of the McDonnell campaign told me, referring to the Washington Post endorsement of Deeds in the primary last month proclaiming the Bath County state senator cut from the same cloth as “centrist” former Gov. (and present Sen.) Mark Warner and present Gov. Tim Kaine (who is required to step down this year after one term in Richmond).
According to Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush and past Republican National Chairman, “Deeds is good on the Second Amendment, and that’s not a really difficult to do if you represent a district that borders West Virginia. Beyond that, he’s a liberal Democrat, through and through.”
Specifically, Gillespie ticked off Deeds’ votes in the Virginia legislature six times to increase gasoline taxes (“one of them was a 34% increase when gas was $4.50 a gallon”), his pro-choice stance, and his rating of only 39% last year from the state association of businessmen known as Virginia Free (“contrasted with a 96% rating from the state AFL-CIO”).
Most recently, the McDonnell strategist noted, Deeds has come out for gay marriage. In the last month, such prominent liberal Democrats as Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire have switched from opposing to supporting same-sex marriage. Both come from states in which same-sex marriage has been legalized. This has yet to happen in the Old Dominion, however, and Deeds’ position could cause him damage in the fall.
Like George Allen in ‘93
Some Democratic handicappers of the Virginia race are quick to point out that, whether Deeds is centrist or left-of-center, Republicans have lost the governorship of the state in the last two elections. In both cases, they nominated strong conservatives, very much like McDonnell, who has compiled a strong conservative record as prosecutor, state legislator and state attorney general. Given that Democrats won the last two gubernatorial races and the Senate race in ’06 and ’08 (not to mention Barack Obama becoming the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to carry Virginia’s electoral votes), is not the tide against McDonnell?
Not necessarily. No Virginia Republican wants it attributed to him or her, but those I have talked to about the ’01 and ’05 races for governor say that respective nominees Mark Earley and Jerry Kilgore were both fine conservatives but flawed candidates who ran campaigns inferior to the triumphant Democrats Warner and Kaine.
“And as for Obama carrying Virginia last year,” observed Gillespie, “a lot of that was due to first time voters who were moved by the Democrat nominee. They are not likely to come out in such numbers in ’09, when the race will be about Virginia and not national issues.”
As for McDonnell himself, he is usually likened less to his party’s nominees in ’01 and ’05 and more often to the young George Allen when he won a landslide election as governor over a purportedly centrist Democrat in 1993. That year, Allen managed to move both social and economic conservatives with his message of opportunity and more freedom for Virginia.
Is McDonnell the Allen of ’09? We’ll know in November, of course. But, as Gillespie pointed out, “Bob is solidly pro-life and everyone knows it. He’s also dead set against raising taxes, opposing [then-Gov. Mark] Warner’s tax increases and voting more than fifty times to cut taxes. His message has always been to get rid of measures that keep business from creating jobs.”
Indeed, the McDonnell bumper sticker and yardsign in “Bob’s 4 Jobs.”
What About Saying No To Stimulus Money?
Any conversation with the McDonnell team inevitably gets back to the labor-funded ads run by the Democratic Governors Association that slam the Republican nominee for endorsing the vote by state legislature refusing federal stimulus money that would have gone to compensation for unemployed workers. In a state where unemployment is 7.1%, this could be strong medicine.
But, much as Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and other state leaders who declined the money for the same purposes have pointed out, Gillespie noted that “this would be a permanent mandate, something the state would have to pick up and probably raise taxes for when federal money ran out in two years. And this is actually an expansion of benefits because it would cover temporary or part-time workers who gave up their jobs, such as young people going back to school.”
State GOPers privately worry that, as one of them told me, “Bob’s position requires a one-page explanation and Democrats require a bumper sticker on this one.”
But, again, Gillespie exudes confidence: “Bob’s a policy guy and a good politician who takes a stand, stays with it rock solid, and explains it well.”
Following Deeds’ landslide primary win, Democrats expected a major bounce in the polls and they got one. That was a month ago. Now, a Rasmussen poll shows McDonnell and Deeds in a virtual tie.
“They got a bounce for a day and it didn’t last,” said Gillespie, “This year, creating jobs will be the issue and social issues, as always, will play a role. As I said, this campaign will be about Virginia.”
And for those who felt that the nomination of “centrist Democrat” Creigh Deeds over the apparently-more-liberal Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran spelled doom for Republican nominee Bob McDonnell, the top McDonnell strategist says “guess again.”
“Creigh Deeds is no Mark Warner,” Ed Gillespie, general chairman of the McDonnell campaign told me, referring to the Washington Post endorsement of Deeds in the primary last month proclaiming the Bath County state senator cut from the same cloth as “centrist” former Gov. (and present Sen.) Mark Warner and present Gov. Tim Kaine (who is required to step down this year after one term in Richmond).
According to Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush and past Republican National Chairman, “Deeds is good on the Second Amendment, and that’s not a really difficult to do if you represent a district that borders West Virginia. Beyond that, he’s a liberal Democrat, through and through.”
Specifically, Gillespie ticked off Deeds’ votes in the Virginia legislature six times to increase gasoline taxes (“one of them was a 34% increase when gas was $4.50 a gallon”), his pro-choice stance, and his rating of only 39% last year from the state association of businessmen known as Virginia Free (“contrasted with a 96% rating from the state AFL-CIO”).
Most recently, the McDonnell strategist noted, Deeds has come out for gay marriage. In the last month, such prominent liberal Democrats as Sens. Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire have switched from opposing to supporting same-sex marriage. Both come from states in which same-sex marriage has been legalized. This has yet to happen in the Old Dominion, however, and Deeds’ position could cause him damage in the fall.
Like George Allen in ‘93
Some Democratic handicappers of the Virginia race are quick to point out that, whether Deeds is centrist or left-of-center, Republicans have lost the governorship of the state in the last two elections. In both cases, they nominated strong conservatives, very much like McDonnell, who has compiled a strong conservative record as prosecutor, state legislator and state attorney general. Given that Democrats won the last two gubernatorial races and the Senate race in ’06 and ’08 (not to mention Barack Obama becoming the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to carry Virginia’s electoral votes), is not the tide against McDonnell?
Not necessarily. No Virginia Republican wants it attributed to him or her, but those I have talked to about the ’01 and ’05 races for governor say that respective nominees Mark Earley and Jerry Kilgore were both fine conservatives but flawed candidates who ran campaigns inferior to the triumphant Democrats Warner and Kaine.
“And as for Obama carrying Virginia last year,” observed Gillespie, “a lot of that was due to first time voters who were moved by the Democrat nominee. They are not likely to come out in such numbers in ’09, when the race will be about Virginia and not national issues.”
As for McDonnell himself, he is usually likened less to his party’s nominees in ’01 and ’05 and more often to the young George Allen when he won a landslide election as governor over a purportedly centrist Democrat in 1993. That year, Allen managed to move both social and economic conservatives with his message of opportunity and more freedom for Virginia.
Is McDonnell the Allen of ’09? We’ll know in November, of course. But, as Gillespie pointed out, “Bob is solidly pro-life and everyone knows it. He’s also dead set against raising taxes, opposing [then-Gov. Mark] Warner’s tax increases and voting more than fifty times to cut taxes. His message has always been to get rid of measures that keep business from creating jobs.”
Indeed, the McDonnell bumper sticker and yardsign in “Bob’s 4 Jobs.”
What About Saying No To Stimulus Money?
Any conversation with the McDonnell team inevitably gets back to the labor-funded ads run by the Democratic Governors Association that slam the Republican nominee for endorsing the vote by state legislature refusing federal stimulus money that would have gone to compensation for unemployed workers. In a state where unemployment is 7.1%, this could be strong medicine.
But, much as Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and other state leaders who declined the money for the same purposes have pointed out, Gillespie noted that “this would be a permanent mandate, something the state would have to pick up and probably raise taxes for when federal money ran out in two years. And this is actually an expansion of benefits because it would cover temporary or part-time workers who gave up their jobs, such as young people going back to school.”
State GOPers privately worry that, as one of them told me, “Bob’s position requires a one-page explanation and Democrats require a bumper sticker on this one.”
But, again, Gillespie exudes confidence: “Bob’s a policy guy and a good politician who takes a stand, stays with it rock solid, and explains it well.”
Following Deeds’ landslide primary win, Democrats expected a major bounce in the polls and they got one. That was a month ago. Now, a Rasmussen poll shows McDonnell and Deeds in a virtual tie.
“They got a bounce for a day and it didn’t last,” said Gillespie, “This year, creating jobs will be the issue and social issues, as always, will play a role. As I said, this campaign will be about Virginia.”
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