Outlook

1. Think about the unthinkable: a contested Democratic convention in Denver, with the identity of the Democratic presidential nominee unknown until just before Labor Day. That's the impact of Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-N.Y.) remarkable performance Tuesday that broke her long losing streak against Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.): a big win in Ohio where she was supposed to win narrowly, if at all, and unexpected wins in Texas and Rhode Island.
   
   
2. A group of prominent Democrats was being formed secretly to go to Clinton to ask her to bow out for the sake of party solidarity. Now, neither candidate, counting their current super-delegates and potential unpledged delegates, can win a majority of delegates even after the Pennsylvania primary April 22. It is hard to imagine either bowing out. That raises the possibility of carnage in Denver with the super-delegates and the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations in play.
   
   
3. The budget fight in Congress beginning next week will be a many-sided political battle touching on issues ranging from Iraq to immigration. Look for Republicans to launch an attack on earmarks and force Democrats to vote on Clinton and Obama spending plans.

Democratic Presidential

Clinton extended the race with her strong performance last night, highlighted by an impressive win in Ohio.

Ohio: Ohio snapped Clinton's losing streak, highlighted her strengths, and reflected a late surge.

1. Ohio favored Clinton demographically, being older, whiter, and more female than the average state. But her 10-point victory here -- a legitimate blowout -- was much bigger than expected, giving Clinton a much-needed bounce.
   
   
2. Obama's clumsy handling of NAFTA issues hurt him, as Clinton won big in manufacturing areas of the state according to exit polls, showing that Clinton has become the certified candidate of blue-collar whites.
   
   
3. Exit polls also suggest that Bill Clinton successfully played his racial angle. Concentrating on Obama's blackness, stressing that it's fine for African-Americans to support a black candidate, Clinton drove home the idea that Obama is a "black candidate." According to exit polls, Obama carried 86 percent of the black vote in Ohio and only 33 percent of the white vote. Clinton won big among those polled who indicated the candidate's race was important.
   
   
4. Clinton won among the late deciders. This reflected NAFTA issues and her campaign trail performance more than her debate performance, which was not a plus for her.

Texas: Hillary's slim win Texas is an upset and crucial to breathing life into her candidacy. It makes her the legitimate winner of last night's primaries by giving her three of four primaries and both big states.

1. While not significant in the delegate race -- Obama, after the caucuses, could come out of Texas with more delegates -- Clinton's slim win in the primary here is of huge PR importance. The media can see it as an upset and see the entire night as a real bounce for Clinton.
   
   
2. Delegate counts from Texas -- all rewarded by state senate district -- were still unclear as of press time, but it was unlikely that Clinton made a sizable dent here in Obama's 150-delegate lead among pledged delegates. She did, however, finally win a day for the first time since Nevada or New Hampshire.
   
   
3. Obama had some real advantages here. He had a bigger, stronger ground game that hit Texas earlier than Clinton's team did. He had large black populations centered in major cities. He also had rich liberals in places such as Austin. These factors make Clinton's win more impressive.
   
   
4. Clinton won the white vote here 55 percent to 44 percent, but she carried the Hispanic vote with 63 percent. Hispanics, according to exit polls, showed up in 50 percent greater numbers than did African-Americans.
   
   
5. The media's reaction and the campaigns' abilities to spin will determine the impact of Texas going forward. Early indications are mixed, with some accounts focusing on her tough delegate climb from here out.

Rhode Island and Vermont: Obama picked up his only win in Vermont while Clinton also won Rhode Island.

1. Vermont, replete with hardcore liberals, was prime territory for Obama, despite being populated mostly by old white people. He won huge here with 60 percent of the vote. Still, this win did nothing to rescue the day for him.
   
   
2. Clinton's win in Rhode Island was also substantial -- nearly a 20-point margin. It continued her streak of winning solidly Blue States.

Going Forward: Clinton still has a very difficult path to the nomination -- one that would inevitably require something verging on the unsavory regarding delegates.

1. Depending on delegate allocation from Tuesday night, Clinton still needs large victories in the remaining states in order to catch Obama among pledged delegates. She is not likely to do this, but if she keeps winning some contests in the future, she will ward off calls for her to step aside.
   
   
2. Pennsylvania and North Carolina are the two biggest remaining states, and she looks like the early favorite in the former, while Obama is favored in North Carolina. Throughout February, Obama could be counted on to make up early deficits in the polls, Hillary could be the one with momentum now.
   
   
3. The major impact of Tuesday night's results is that now nobody can call on Clinton to quit. This boosts the possibility of the nomination's being undecided going into the Denver August convention. If this process gets ugly -- and with a Clinton involved, that seems likely -- McCain could really benefit.
   
   
4. With Hillary's staying in the race for the home stretch, the need for a solution on Michigan and Florida becomes more acute. Clinton's proposal that both states' January primary results be counted is unfair on its face. The idea of a do-over -- advanced, oddly, by Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- gains some currency. The third option -- blocking the states' delegates altogether -- could hurt Obama if he wins the nomination on that score.

Republican Presidential

Overview: Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) clinched the nomination Tuesday night, driving his last competition out of the race.

1. McCain swept the Tuesday primaries, winning by huge margins over his remaining competitor, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. McCain's impressive showings March 4 reflected the inevitability of his nomination as well as Republican voters' coming to terms with him.
   
   
2. By the delegate counts of most news organizations, including the Associated Press, McCain has surpassed 1,194 delegates -- a majority of delegates at the September convention.
   
   
3. Huckabee's sticking around as long as he did may have created the appearance that he was a competitor for the nomination, but this wasn't true. Even after winning the Iowa caucuses January 3 -- the high point of his run -- Huckabee's chances of winning the nomination were very slim. After his South Carolina and Florida losses, he was eliminated, and McCain had basically won.
   
   
4. McCain still faces serious challenges. Most troubling for him is his fundraising. He is well behind Clinton and Obama, he faces a generally depressed Republican community, he does not please many GOP regulars, and the restrictions of his campaign finance are obnoxious to many. Add on his FEC troubles relating to his acceptance of federal matching funds, and McCain faces a real money headache.

Other March 4 Primaries

Ohio: The Buckeye State held four congressional primaries of note yesterday down-ballot from the presidential contest.

1. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) hung on to his Cleveland-area 10th District, fighting off a legitimate primary challenge. He pulled in 50.3 percent of the vote in a five-way primary, beating his nearest competitor by 15 points.
   
   
2. In the race to succeed retiring Rep. Dave Hobson (R) in the 7th District State Senate Majority Whip Steve Austria (R) handily won the primary. He is the favorite over attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D).
   
   
3. State Sen. Steve Stivers (R) handily won his primary in the 15th District. Stivers, who had entered the race, dropped out, and re-entered, is a slight underdog against Franklin County Commissioner and 2006 candidate Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in the race to replace retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) in this Columbus-area district.
   
   
4. State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R) edged out Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller (R) in the primary to succeed retiring Rep. Ralph Regula (R) in the 16th District. State Sen. John Boccieri will be the Democratic nominee in this Republican-leaning district.

Texas: Three congressional contests here were of note.

1. As with Ohio's 10th District, Texas's 14th saw an incumbent congressman challenged for re-nomination based on his anti-war presidential run. Here, however, the congressman is a Republican -- Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.). Paul handily dispatched Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden (R), who ran on a pro-Iraq War platform, attacking Paul's anti-war stance. In this very Republican and conservative district, Paul bested Peden by a two-to-one margin.
   
   
2. Similarly, 84-year-old Rep. Ralph Hall (R), amid speculation he would finish under 50 percent and need a runoff to win re-nomination, garnered 73 percent in his primary.
   
   
3. Rep. Nick Lampson (D) will face a tough reelection bid for Rep. Tom DeLay's (R) old seat, but he's not sure who his opponent will be. Texas Republicans in this Sugarland district will choose their nominee in a runoff. Former Rep. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), who served seven weeks in Congress after DeLay's resignation, finished first in a 10-way primary with 30 percent. Pete Olson, former chief of staff for Sen. John Cornyn (R), finished second with 20 percent. The runoff will be competitive, but Olson carries the endorsements of Cornyn and former Sen. Phil Gramm (R).

Senate 2008

Nebraska: The field is set in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Chuck Hagel (R), and things look good for Republicans. When the filing deadline passed on Monday, four Democrats and two Republicans qualified for the race.

Former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) is the favorite here. His sole primary challenger is conservative Pat Flynn (R) who had only $5,000 on hand at the end of 2007. Former Nebraska Atty. Gen. John Bruning (R) opted against a run.

College teacher Scott Kleeb (D), who lost in an open seat for Congress last year, is probably the leading Democratic candidate. The other Democrats are businessman Tony Raimondo (D), Air Force veteran Larry Marvin (D), and former candidate for mayor of Lincoln James Bryan Wilson (D).

Johanns is the strong favorite here, lacking serious opposition. Likely Republican Retention.

New Mexico: The open-seat Senate race sparked by the retirement of Sen. Pete Domenici (R) is still looking like a Democratic victory. All three of New Mexico's congressmen -- two Republicans and one Democrat -- are running for the seat.

Rep. Mark Udall (D) will gain the Democratic nomination without even a nominal primary, as the filing deadline has passed with no other Democrats entering the race. His only potential rival, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez (D), opted against a run.

Republicans have a two-way primary, pitting Rep. Heather Wilson against Rep. Steve Pearce. The primary will be June 3.

Wilson is a moderate Republican representing an Albuquerque-based swing-district that leans slightly Democratic. She has faced many tough re-election bids lately, actually looking like the loser on Election Day in 2002 and 2006 before eventually coming out on top. In 2004, she outperformed George Bush by 17,000 votes. Her perseverance in tough turf speaks well to her to general election chances but might not help in a primary, where only registered Republicans can vote.

Among the Republican base, Pearce will be more popular. He has a more conservative record, and his district in the Southern part of the state has more Republican voters than does Wilson's. Pearce's fundraising has kept pace with Wilson's, but he's outspent her and so has less cash on hand. He has the ideological and geographical advantage in the primary, but she is a stronger campaigner.

Recent general election polls show Udall at 50 percent against either candidate, with a six- or seven-point lead. The poll figures suggest a competitive race, but Udall is certainly the favorite here. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

House 2008

Illinois-11: A Democrat-leaning district looks even worse for Republicans after their original nominee dropped out last week. New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann (R), who easily won the GOP primary on February 5, decided last week to withdraw from the race, citing his dislike of fundraising and the demands of campaigning.

Baldermann was the establishment candidate and the pick of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R), who leaves a cloud of scandal behind him that could help tip this seat to the Democrats.

Democrats have nominated State Senate President Debbie Halvorson (D), a liberal adept at fundraising. Halvorson had outraised Baldermann four to one and held a nearly six-to-one cash-on-hand advantage.

County GOP officials will pick their party's nominee shortly, but this seat is looking even more like a Democratic pickup. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Special Election

Illinois-15: Saturday, March 8, is the special election to fill the seat left vacant by the early resignation of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert (R). Turnout here could be extremely low, adding a substantial element of unpredictability in this slightly Republican district.

Dairy owner Jim Oberweis (R) has relentlessly been attacking scientist and businessman Bill Foster (D), banging on a tape of his comment that "there's nothing in life that you can't improve by throwing money at it." Foster, for his part, has been on the attack as well.

This may be the first Saturday election in decades in Illinois. Coming one month after the primaries, with no other elections on the ballot, the turnout could be embarrassingly low. On the other hand, voters would have a hard time not knowing about the election, as Foster and Oberweis have saturated the television and radio airwaves with their attack ads.

Both candidates tout prominent local endorsements that could help: Obama for Foster and Hastert for Oberweis. Obama's plug for Foster could help gin up liberal grassroots support -- while, in exchange, Obama gains a super-delegate if Foster wins. Hastert, meanwhile, has given much of his former district staff to Oberweis, which could help him with the all-important ground game, driving turnout.

Foster should benefit from his union support, specifically from AFSCME. Also, Oberweis's history of poorly run campaigns and his negative primary campaign against State Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) could depress the GOP base a bit. This district, however, is GOP turf, with Bush garnering 54 and 55 percent here in his two elections.

Even more than with most special elections, turnout will be the whole story here. With a forecasted 23 degrees after four days of snow, the vote totals could be extremely low, adding to the unpredictability. The slight GOP bent of the district combined with Hastert's organizational support makes Oberweis the slight favorite, but a Foster win would hardly be a shock. Leaning Republican Retention.