In newspaper and television profiles, the liberal media are hyping Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D.-Calif.) as the near-certain next speaker of the House, and polls give Democrats an edge over Republicans in the generic ballot for U.S. House candidates nationwide. But as former Secretary of State James Baker once said, “Overnight can be an eternity in politics.”

With a week to go before voters in 435 congressional districts elect the next House of Representatives (which now has 230 Republicans, 201 Democrats, one independent who votes with the Democrats, and three vacancies), there is evidence indicating a Democratic House and a Speaker Pelosi are not sure things. Veteran conservative activist Paul Weyrich of Coalitions for America told me last week that “a lot of grass-roots conservatives I spoke to were saying a few weeks ago that ‘I’m not voting for those bums’—meaning the Republicans in Congress. Now they’re saying, ‘I don’t like some things they’ve done, but we can’t let the Democrats take over.’” Connecticut Republican Chairman George Gallo, a moderate, said, “The scandal surrounding [disgraced former Florida Rep.] Mark Foley is fading here. People are talking a lot about North Korea and national security.”

Weyrich and Gallo agree that the Republican base will turn out November 7.

Because of post-2000 redistricting, there are relatively few competitive races. Two years ago, 98.7% of incumbents were re-elected, a post-World War II record. In addition, in the 21 districts where Republicans are stepping down or have resigned, George W. Bush won an average of 57% of the vote in 2004.

In my view, the Republicans will lose a net of 12 seats, resulting in a House that has a 220-to-215 Republican majority.

DISTRICT	REPUBLICAN	DEMOCRAT	ANALYSIS
GOP Incumbents Likely to be Defeated By Democrats
California-4	John Doolittle	Charlie Brown	Doolittle’s wife’s ties to Jack Abramoff hurt badly.
Indiana-8	John Hostettler	Brad Ellsworth	County Sheriff Ellsworth has concealed his liberalism enough to beat Hostettler.
Indiana-9	Mike Sodrel	Baron Hill	Ex-Rep. Hill has edge in third match with Sodrel.
New York-26	Tom Reynolds	Jack Davis	Questions about Reynolds’ role in Foley scandal could be his downfall against millionaire Davis.
North Carolina-11	Charles Taylor	Heath Schuler	Ex-pro footballer Schuler set to run past Taylor.
Pennsylvania-6	Jim Gerlach	Lois Murphy	Ex-state NARAL head Murphy should overturn 6,400-vote loss to Gerlach in 2004.
Pennsylvania -7	Curt Weldon	Joseph Sestak	FBI raid on Weldon’s daughters’ home will help retired Adm. Sestak sink him.
Pennsylvania -10	Don Sherwood	Chris Carney	Sherwood sex scandal boosts Iraq veteran Carney.
Open GOP Seats Likely to be Won By Democrats
Colorado-7	Rick O’Donnell	Ed Perlmutter	Dems have edge in state’s most marginal district.
Iowa-1	Mike Whalen	Bill Braley	Warhorse Braley has Democratic voter registration edge over restaurateur Whalen.
Ohio-18	Joy Padgett	Zack Space	Default on husband’s $1-million business loan hurt Padgett.
Vacant GOP Seats Likely to be Won By Democrats
Florida-16	Joe Negron	Tim Mahoney	With Negron’s name blocked from appearing on the ballot after Foley’s fall, Mahoney wins by default.
Texas-22	Shelley Sekula-Gibbs	Nick Lampson	DeLay’s delay getting off the ballot forced Sekula-Gibbs to go the write-in route, letting Nick win seat.
Vacant Democratic Seat Likely to be Held by Democrats
New Jersey-13	John Guarini	Albio Sires	Ex-Assembly Speaker Sires is slam dunk for Menendez’s seat.
Vacant Independent Seat Likely to be Won by Republicans
Vermont-AL	Martha Rainville	Peter Welch	Retired Gen. Rainville strong candidate against State Sen. Welch.