Politics

Can GOP win the Senate in 2014?

Can GOP win the Senate in 2014?

The 2014 elections can be a rerun of the 2010 elections, but with one major difference: Republicans have a good chance to take over the Senate. Democrats have to defend 21 seats, while Republicans only have 14 Senate seats up for election.

An additional fact shows the difficulty for the liberal Democrats in holding the Senate.

Democrats have to retain seats in 7 states where Obama lost the popular vote in 2012. In these 7 states, the disapproval of Obamacare is particularly high.

The chart below was put together by Conservative Victory Fund and looks at each of the seats that will be up for election next year. As can be seen below, Republicans can take over the Senate with a net gain of 6 seats, but even more seats can be won by Republican conservatives. The Senate currently has 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.

 

Senators Up for Re-Election and Open Seats in 2014

Republicans

 

Jeff Sessions

AL

Strong conservative, should be re-elected.
Saxby Chambliss (Retiring)

GA

Even though Chambliss is retiring, a conservative should win.
James Risch

ID

Risch has served Idaho statewide for over a decade and will continue to do so after 2014.
Pat Roberts

KS

Democrats haven’t held one of these senate seats since 1939, and 2014 won’t change that.
Mitch McConnell

KY

Ashley Judd’s out and Mitch McConnell is most likely in for another 6 years but it will probably be hard fought.
Susan Collins

ME*

Likely retention
Thad Cochran

MS

This should be considered a likely retention. (But also a possible retirement)
James Inhofe

OK

Rated in the top 10 of conservative senators, Inhofe shouldn’t have much trouble maintaining this seat in a conservative’s conservative state.
Lindsey Graham

SC

Graham could very well get primaried by conservatives…if he does, be prepared for the media to turn to their conservative smear machine.
Mike Johanns (Retiring)

NE

Deb Fischer won with flying colors in 2012. Another strong conservative can repeat.
Tim Scott

SC

This recently appointed conservative senator should win, but he’ll have to build a sizable war chest in the meantime.
Lamar Alexander

TN

Likely retention.
John Cornyn

TX

The rise of the Hispanic population in Texas hasn’t changed the Lone Star state, likely retention.
Michael Enzi

WY

As far as states go, they don’t get much more conservative than Wyoming…definite retention.
Democrats
Mark Begich

AK*

Begich beware, a lucky victory on the conviction of Stevens might have gotten you there…but keeping it is another story.
Mark Pryor

AR*

Could be a pick up for Republicans. That can be done with a strong conservative candidate with enough dollars.
Mark Udall

CO

Millions were spent in 2008 but Udall was able to prevail…can Colorado return to its conservative roots?
Christopher Coons

DE

Likely Democrat retention.
Brian Schatz

HI

Schatz was appointed to fill the seat after the passing of late Senator Daniel Inouye. This state will remain Democrat in the 2014 election.
Dick Durbin

IL

The Majority Whip isn’t going anywhere, except maybe to the Minority, likely retention.
Tom Harkin (Retiring)

IA

Republicans have done well historically during mid-term elections in Iowa. A conservative can win.
Mary Landrieu

LA*

With Obama not on the ballot, this could be a difficult hold for the Democrat especially against a conservative. However, the senior senator is guaranteed to have a sizable war chest.
Mo Cowan (Not Seeking Election)

MA

Even with John Kerry now heading the State Dept. and appointee Mo Cowan not seeking election, this seat will probably remain liberal Democrat.
Carl Levin (Retiring)

MI

The incumbent governor is a Republican and up for re-election in 2014 and there’s a chance him being on the top of the ticket might help whoever the Republican’s choose.
Al Franken

MN

Tough pick up for Republicans, but could be done.
Max Baucus (Retiring)

MT*

A retiring Max Baucus, who is a chief author of Obamacare, makes this state a toss-up.
Kay Hagan

NC*

Could be one termer, Hagan voted for the recent anti-gun legislation.
Jeanne Shaheen

NH

Can another Ayotte or Sununu rise to defeat her, this could be a pick up for Republicans.
Frank Lautenberg (Retiring)

NJ

Likely retention for the Democrats.
Tom Udall

NM

Probable retention
Jeff Merkley

OR

Likely retention
Jack Reed

RI

Likely retention
Tim Johnson (Retiring)

SD*

Another possible pick up for Republicans in a state that continues to get more conservative.
Mark Warner

VA

In the Democrat senate, Mark Warner is considered a moderate, though he’s more of a liberal.  He has strong poll numbers.
Jay Rockefeller (Retiring)

WV*

A conservative Republican can win.

 

* Indicates that the Senator’s Party lost the state in the 2012 Presidential election.

 

Ron Pearson is the Executive Director of CVF and former Chief of Staff of the late conservative hero and founder of CVF Congressman John Ashbrook.  He has also managed House and Senate campaigns.

Trevor Smith, Ph.D. is the Political Analyst for CVF.

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