Election predictions roundup
Pew Research Center’s last poll before the election puts Obama at a slight edge: “Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign.” In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.
“The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions.”
Rasmussen Reports’ final daily poll, out this morning, has the figures split: “Both candidates are viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide.
“When it comes to the economy, 50% trust Romney more, while 47% have more confidence in the president. [...]
“The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney with 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.”
Gallup’s early voting survey gives Romney the edge: “Underscoring the tightness of the race, Obama and Romney have equal 52% favorable ratings among likely voters. Gallup has shown that the candidate with the higher favorable rating usually wins, but the similarity of the two candidates’ images provides no such guidance this year.
“Obama’s and Romney’s images in likely voters’ minds across a range of three personal characteristics and six issues underscore the candidates’ basic positioning, which has been evident throughout this election campaign. Despite the two candidates’ equal favorability scores, when Americans are asked who is more likable, Obama wins by 12 points, although this gap has narrowed over the course of the campaign. Obama also holds an eight-point advantage as the candidate better able to handle foreign affairs. Romney scores six and nine points higher than Obama as being better able to handle the economy and the deficit, respectively.”
Karl Rove: “Without twelve toss-up states (MN, NV, CO, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, NH, VA, NC, AND FL), Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are tied at 191 each. I predict Mr. Romney will win FL (29), NC (15), VA (13), NH (4), OH (18), IA (6), CO (9) and Mr. Obama will get MN (10), NV (6), WI (10), MI (16), PA (20). This brings Mr. Romney to 285 Electoral College votes and Mr. Obama to 253. These are just my base predictions and I still think several of these states are too close to call. For example, while I put them in Mr. Obama’s column, I still believe NV, WI, and PA are in play and very winnable for Mr. Romney. If crowds at his recent stops in these states are any indication of his supporters’ enthusiasm, Mr. Romney will likely be able to claim victory in these states as well.”
Dick Morris predicts a Romney landslide of 325 electoral votes: “Yup. That’s right. A landslide for Romney approaching the magnitude of Obama’s against McCain. That’s my prediction.
“On Sunday, we changed our clocks. On Tuesday, we’ll change our president.
Romney will win the states McCain carried in 2008, plus: Florida, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
“In the popular vote, Romney will win by more than 5 points.”
RedState’s Dan McLaughlin goes “out on a limb” to call it for Romney:
“I still feel fairly confident about my bottom line: Romney will win. But until we see the actual voter turnout, it’s hard to project more than educated guesswork as to the size of that win.
“It may be tough to measure the final electorate, because exit polls won’t capture early voters, and in some states that’s a lot of people…. My prediction for the national turnout is a conservative one: D+2, D 37/R 35/I 28. Assuming Romney wins Republicans 94-6, Obama carries Democrats 93-7, and Romney wins independents 53-47 – again, a conservative projection given the polls – that gives us Romney 50.3%, Obama 49.7%.”
Erick Erickson gives swing-state breakdown in Romney’s favor right here at Human Events: “I believe Mitt Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. If he loses either Florida or Virginia, it’s an early night.
“If he wins Florida and Virginia, we go to Ohio.
“I honestly change my mind hourly on Ohio, but my best guess is that Romney wins Ohio and consequently wins the Presidency. I think Colorado is a foregone conclusion for Romney in the same way I think Nevada is a foregone conclusion for Obama.”
Fox News’s Lanny Davis calls it for Obama, saying he won a “battle of messages” with Romney: “My best guess is the popular vote margin will be 50.5 percent to 49. The electoral vote margin will likely be 281 for Obama and 257 for Romney. I am picking battleground states for Obama to include Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire. For Romney I am predicting he will win battleground states Virginia, North Carolina and Colorado. [...]
“It’s too bad for Romney that he waited until the first debate in October to show genuine strength of character, a commanding presence and likability. Why didn’t he do that between the end of the last debate and the convention? Why didn’t he do that in his acceptance speech? And whatever he gained in that first debate, he lost by the slimy, dishonest Jeep ads that he is now running in Ohio and the scurrilous and shameful ad he’s running in Florida associating Obama with Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro.”