Erick Erickson’s results playbook — final predictions
Republicans are supposed to be “rah-rah” for Romney today.
Democrats are supposed to be “rah-rah” for Obama today.
I don’t much believe either side at this point. Democrats are supremely confident right now in Washington. The Republican consultants not so much. It is a reversal from just two weeks ago.
Here’s what I do know and do believe.
I believe Mitt Romney will win Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. If he loses either Florida or Virginia, it’s an early night.
If he wins Florida and Virginia, we go to Ohio.
I honestly change my mind hourly on Ohio, but my best guess is that Romney wins Ohio and consequently wins the Presidency. I think Colorado is a foregone conclusion for Romney in the same way I think Nevada is a foregone conclusion for Obama.
I won’t pin my hopes on Pennsylvania, but it is possible. If Pennsylvania somehow goes for Romney, it’s over early.
What about Ohio though?
My sense from talking to non-campaign sources is that the GOP has been able to stay close to Obama in early voting and will win election day voting. I think economics voters and religious freedom voters, some of whom are Democrats, will push Romney over the line in Ohio.
I think senior citizens, white voters in general, Catholic voters and blue collar voters help Romney. I think a decreased youth vote hurts Obama.
If you take a polling average in Ohio, the President is three points ahead. Republicans tend to do two points better in Ohio than the polling and Democrats tend to do one point worse than the polling. That puts Ohio tied and I think passion for Romney makes up that gap.
This is a very close race. Polling trends did show a bounce for Obama post hurricane, but that bounce is now gone and I think it puts Romney, in the final days, very slightly ahead.
Of course everybody has to go vote. The Republican consultants may be down as the sun rises, but I’ve never seen the Republican base more fired up.