Election 2012

BOOM: Poll shows Romney with a 4 point lead in Pennsylvania

BOOM: Poll shows Romney with a 4 point lead in Pennsylvania

Thursday afternoon, the Susquehanna polling firm posted an enigmatic Twitter message that was swiftly deleted for some reason.  The message spoke of a shock poll that showed Mitt Romney taking the lead in Pennsylvania.  Some wondered if the message was a mistake, while others speculated that it might have been posted ahead of schedule.

It turns out the poll is for real.  Mitt Romney leads by 4 in Pennsylvania, 49-45.  The Washington Examiner has the details:

“The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it,” Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.

Romney isn’t spending much time or money in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Every other Pennsylvania poll shows Obama ahead, though by a narrowing margin. A Quinnipiac University poll taken around the same time as the Susquehanna poll shows Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 46 percent.

Susquehanna’s automated poll or 1,376 likely voters was taken between Oct. 11 and 13, before the second presidential debate Tuesday that many saw as a comeback for Obama since his Oct. 3 showdown with Romney.

The big movement toward Romney in the Susquehanna poll seems to be in the Philly suburbs, and among blue-collar Democrats in the western part of the state.  The Examiner goes on to note that Susquehanna’s poll is less likely to over-sample Democrats than the others.  The new survey might be an outlier, but it seems clear that Pennsylvania is a battleground.

How’s that War on Coal going for you, Mr. President?

 

 

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